Eurovision is a geopolitical popularity contest mixed with a song contest. 'Bloc Voting' is real: Scandinavian countries vote for each other; Balkan countries vote for each other. The 'Running Order' is a massive factor,songs performed in the second half of the show (slots 16-26) win significantly more often than those in the first half due to recency bias in televoting. Watch the 'Jury Rehearsal' reports on Friday night; bookmakers adjust odds heavily based on how the juries reacted 24 hours before the TV broadcast.
One off and non league events lack the rhythm of a regular season, so form lines are thin and preparation quality varies widely between entrants. Travel, unfamiliar surroundings and exhibition style motivation can produce results that a pure ability comparison would never suggest. Format rules are often bespoke, with shortened contests, unusual scoring or modified time limits. Attention usually sits on the outright market, handicaps and simple totals rather than fine grained props.
Add the event to your calendar to keep the start time as the schedule is confirmed. Kick-off times are checked against the official schedule every week, so this page follows any change.