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The PGA Championship generally boasts the strongest field in golf (most Top 100 players). Aronimink is a classic Donald Ross design,tough but fair.

Course setup is the defining variable. The championship is known for narrow fairways, punishing rough and firm, fast greens, the scoring average climbs, and par holds value in a way it rarely does elsewhere.

Exhibition rules shape everything. Managers rotate pitchers in short bursts, often an inning at a time, so nobody settles into a rhythm and the lineups turn over constantly.

Links golf makes this the least predictable of the majors. Half the field plays its first round in one set of conditions and half in another, and a swing in wind or rain across the draw can be worth several shots.

A small field with no cut changes how the week reads. Everyone here has come through a qualifying series, recent form is comparable, and no stragglers stretch the scoreboard, so the gap between first and last is narrower than at a...