The Academy Awards are not random; they follow the momentum established by the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs. If a specific actor wins the SAG and the Globe, they are a near-lock (90%+) for the Oscar.

Eurovision is a geopolitical popularity contest mixed with a song contest. 'Bloc Voting' is real: Scandinavian countries vote for each other; Balkan countries vote for each other.